How To Predict The Future?

Since times immemorial humans have been obsessed with the future. Scientists through their mathematical models, and us, lesser mortals, through astrological divinations have constantly endeavoured to predict the future, because we want to know that our future is going to be great. And if it is not going to be great, we want to be prepared for what is coming.

But, in spite of the best efforts and intentions, no sure-fire way of predicting the future has been arrived at. One reason for this could be that the future does not exist until it happens, and mathematical models or astrological divinations – whichever you choose to believe in – can only give you a rough outline of one out of many futures.

So, let me apologise for misleading you with the clickbait of a post title.

There is no magic mantra to predict the future. But, in times like the present, where the ephemerality of human life has been brought to sharp focus by the on-going Corona Virus crisis, who does not want to get better at predicting the future?

So, how can we get better at predicting the future?

The best place to start would be the present. The present is, after all, the future of the past. We need to have a look at the events of the past that have led to this future.

As an example, think about a thing about your present that you do not like. How did it come about to be? What could you have done in the past to make the present different? Are you doing that now? If not, your future is quite likely going to be like your present, isn’t it?

But just looking at the past is not enough. You have to gather all the facts – which by itself is no easy task – about the past, and then make adjustments for any biases that might have crept into your understanding of the matter. For a list of the most common biases that affect our everyday decision making, I would like to refer you to this article, since it would be a digression to talk about them here.

Once you begin to understand how the events of the past have shaped the present, you will definitely be able to make better predictions about the future. Not only that you will be able to take better decisions if you decide to have a better future for yourself.

And, if you think you are already a good predictor of future events, you may want to try your hands at the Good Judgement Project.

(Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay)